Who is nate silver dating

In 2008, Nate called the presidential election results for 49 out of 50 states long before the Western states had even finished voting.In 2012, he cemented his place in the halls of political forecasting fame by besting his 2008 record. He started off predicting baseball, and his award-winning blog , is yet another example of his effort to understand real-world phenomena through stats.Silver's confidence in an Obama victory stems heavily from the president's prospects in Ohio, a battleground state that Romney likely needs to win to have any chance at pulling off the upset.Silver's latest calculations give the president a 90.6 percent chance of taking the Buckeye State.Narrative is not just how we discuss the world, it’s how we interpret it, how we bundle our neurological impulses and responses to make sense of our immediate environment, which has far too many data points for us to ever live solely by the numbers.MORE: Why ESPN hired Nate Silver But narrative has been digitally disrupted for most of us, since the mid-aughts.interactive.* Previously, Obama's best odds had topped out at 87.1 percent on Oct. Silver's now-cast, meanwhile—which is supposed to provide a snapshot of where the president stands on a particular day (and not where it would likely stand on Election Day)—gave Obama a 98.1 percent chance of winning back on Sept. (*Note: Silver's interactive provides daily data dating back to the start of this summer, but doesn't provide multiple data points for each day.So while Obama's chances of winning were technically 91.6 percent as of the 4 a.m.

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forecast, that interim figure isn't registered in the interactive now that there's been a subsequent update today.) It's worth noting that as Silver's critics became louder during the campaign's final days, his projections did not hedge toward the center, something that (intentionally or not) would have given him more cover if Romney ends up winning the election.

Instead, over the past seven days Silver's forecast for Obama's chances of victory increased by 13.5 percent (his now-cast likewise climbed by 11.4 percent).

Join us as we host Jordan Ellenberg in conversation with Nate Silver as they do the math on predictions inside and outside the world of politics.

This is the first of three Bay Area talks by Nate Silver. The leading national forum open to all for the impartial discussion of public issues important to the membership, community and nation.

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